The forecast takes account of global economic developments up to October 2011 and the latest Eurostat population projections. A modest economic recovery up to 2020 is forecast based on the European Commission’s short-term macroeconomic projections and assumes continued fiscal consolidation in Member States, reestablished trust in the banking sector, higher consumer confidence and economic growth outside EU. The forecasting model has been updated since 2010 using new data and has been validated by national experts.