The aim of this study is to forecast the structure of employment in the Hungarian economy by occupations, gender, education and regions, in the medium run (5 years) and in the long run (10 years). An intermediate product of the study – worth the attention in itself – is a set of forecasts for 19 industries of the economy, as industry-level employment is the basis for any further division of the population of employed along the above listed worker characteristics.
The need for such an analysis is self-evident as the proportion of employed persons in an economy is an important indicator of its efficiency: if only few people work, human resources will get lost for the country. In addition, many economic and social policies are strongly affected by the number of employed as a large part of taxes – both originating from labor activity and consumption – are contingent upon the labor market activity of the population. The state budget is also more easily in equilibrium if fewer subsidies are spent on unemployment benefits and support for the inactive. Also, the government’s stated goal is to enlarge the traditionally low employment rate of Hungary, and showing how employment will evolve can provide valuable information for such attempts.