Romania has experienced a fall in the number of wage-earning employees since the beginning of the century. This has been explained with reference to high rates of inactivity recorded by the working-age population, the large number of people working in subsistence farming, and the outward migration of labour (mostly to elsewhere in the EU), bringing about a loss of human capital. Similarly, the extent of early school leaving also has affected the competitiveness of Romania’s human capital.
Looking to the future, there will be modest employment growth, but employment levels in 2025 are expected to remain below their pre-2008 financial crisis levels. Most employment growth over the medium-term will be in the distribution and transport sector, and most job opportunities will be for skilled agricultural, forestry and fishery workers.
In the period to 2025 Romania is forecast to increase its demand for high- and low-skilled workers, whilst demand for medium-skilled workers decreases. Meanwhile, the share of Romania’s labour force with high level qualifications is projected to increase sharply as the share of the labour force with medium qualifications falls.
Romania’s working-age population (15-64) is projected to shrink in the period to 2025, with labour market participation rising. Looking further forward, Romania is expected to have an old-age dependency ratio at a similar level to the EU28 average over the coming decades.