The future employment needs indicator offers an estimate of the total job openings in each occupation in the period to 2030. This is the sum of future needs that will arise due to a) the need to replace existing workforce and b) the need to cover new jobs because the economy is growing – which, if demand for workers is shrinking, may be negative.
This means that future employment needs in a given occupation may be substantial (due to the need to replace workers) even if the total numbers in this particular occupation are expected to decline. A paradigmatic example is that of agricultural workers, for which even if future employed trends seem declining in most countries, the need to replace workers who are now close to retirement will create large numbers of new job openings. Sometimes job seekers are not aware of this, meaning employers may then find it difficult to fill vacancies because people regard some occupations or sectors as being associated with limited future job growth - even though they may offer many employment opportunities.
Note: The detailed estimates are subject to possibly large and uncertain margins of error. They should not be taken literally but suggestive of indicative trends and patterns. As a rough rule of thumb, any cell containing fewer than 10,000 people should be regarded with caution. Cells with fewer than 1,000 people should be regarded with considerable scepticism.
The additional number of people who will be required to work in an occupation given projected changes in employment and replacement demands.
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© CEDEFOP 2019